Summary: Consulting is still growing, but the traditional pyramid career model is reshaping. Firms face the challenge of sustaining talent pipelines while AI and client expectations change the rules. Candidates still have opportunities – but the playbook is different.
The career ladder is shifting shape
Business Insider recently reported what many in the industry are experiencing first-hand: consulting’s career ladder is getting narrower. Entry-level hiring has slowed sharply, and firms are promoting fewer partners. The classic pyramid structure – large intake at the bottom, small group at the top – is flattening into a diamond.
This has led to speculation that consulting is in decline. But that’s not what the evidence shows. McKinsey’s Global Managing Partner Bob Sternfels told Bloomberg that around half of McKinsey’s workforce are in non-consulting roles such as research, design, analytics, and support. These are the areas most exposed to AI-driven disruption, not the consulting core.
Headcount reductions at major firms, McKinsey down 11% since 2022, Bain down 6% over the same period, reflect that shift. The client-facing business of consulting remains resilient and continues to grow.
Overcapacity is still being absorbed
The 2021–22 boom years created record intake levels. Those cohorts are still working their way through the system, which makes it harder for firms to justify bringing in additional analysts and associates. Until those classes progress, the lower rungs of the ladder will feel tighter than normal.
For mid-tier roles, competition has increased. Managers and project leaders who might previously have been promoted quickly are now in a larger, slower-moving pool.
Expertise over generalism
Firms are reshaping their recruiting strategy. Instead of hiring large classes of generalist MBAs, they are targeting specific expertise in technology, AI, supply chain, and industry verticals.
Clients are driving this change. They are less willing to pay for leverage models where armies of juniors deliver generic output. They want senior attention, sector knowledge, and specialists who can solve specific problems. This is pushing firms to rethink who they hire and how they deploy teams.
AI is changing the apprenticeship model
Revelio Labs estimates that 45% of consulting activities are now “AI-exposed.” This doesn’t mean consultants are being replaced. It means much of the repetitive work that used to occupy junior teams – slide-building, benchmarking, modelling – can now be accelerated by technology.
In the short term, this improves margins. In the long term, it creates a new challenge: if juniors no longer get the repetitions that build judgment and pattern recognition, how do firms develop the next generation of partners? The risk is a hollowing out of the apprenticeship model that has underpinned consulting for decades.
The partner track is narrowing
Promotion standards are tightening. McKinsey promoted around 200 partners in 2024, half the number it promoted in 2021. Deloitte UK cut partner promotions by 25% year-on-year. Firms are being more selective, and partnership is no longer a reward for time served.
Reputation and performance are now built deal by deal. That makes the partner title even more valuable for those who achieve it, but harder to secure.
What this means for firms
The challenge for consulting firms is structural. They need to redesign talent models in a way that balances AI efficiency with long-term development. Without a sustainable system to train and promote new leaders, the industry risks strong short-term margins but weaker long-term competitiveness.
What this means for candidates
Consulting is still a strong career bet. But the traditional linear playbook – join as an analyst, climb steadily to partner – is being rewritten.
Today, the differentiators are expertise, adaptability, and judgment. Candidates with sector depth, technical fluency, and the ability to apply AI in practice will thrive. Those relying solely on time served will find the ladder steeper.
The bigger picture
Consulting has always been built on leverage and repetition. That model is now being reshaped. Margins remain healthy. Client demand is steady. The risk is not collapse – it’s failing to rebuild the ladder in a way that produces the next generation of partners.
The firms that adapt their hiring, training, and promotion models fastest will set the pace for the decade ahead.
This post comments on:
Business Insider: ‘Culling of the herd’: Consulting could be headed for a decadelong shift that’ll make it harder to climb its career ladder
14-September 2025
Ben Appleton is the founder of Strat-Bridge, a specialist executive search partner to the strategy consulting industry. He works with global consulting firms and senior leaders across the UK, Germany, Switzerland, and beyond — helping them build capability at the Partner and Director level.
